A Memory-dependent (q,t)-deformed Fractional Decision-support Model for Sustainable Religious Tourism Management in Iraq
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15377/2409-5761.2026.13.9Keywords:
Sustainable tourism planning, Religious tourism management, (q,t)-deformed fractional calculus, Fractional decision-support models, Pilgrim-flow and congestion managementAbstract
This study proposes a memory-dependent (q,t)-deformed fractional decision model for religious tourism management in Iraq, with a case study focused on the Najaf–Karbala pilgrimage corridor during high-density visitation periods such as Arbaeen. The model describes the nonlinear interaction among pilgrim flow, crowding intensity, service capacity, risk pressure, and visitor satisfaction. The deformation parameters (q,t) capture scale-sensitive and delayed responses in tourism demand, whereas the fractional order a represents memory effects associated with seasonal pilgrimage behavior and accumulated service pressure. The framework provides a quantitative tool for forecasting congestion, evaluating service-capacity limitations, and supporting sustainable planning for religious-tourism destinations in Iraq.
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