Time Series in the Study of Seismic Regime of Vrancea (Romania) Seismic Zone

Authors

  • R.Z. Burtiev Institute of Geology and Seismology, 3 Academiei Str, Chisinau, Moldova

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15377/2410-3624.2014.01.02.4

Keywords:

Simple seasonal, winters, ARIMA models, autocorrelation, periodogramm.

Abstract

In the series of monthly number of earthquakes is present long-term systematic component. The assumptionabout stationary of the average value and the variance is rejected. Statistically significant autocorrelation coefficientsmean that the time series is not random, and there is some connection between successive levels. In order to predict aseries of exponential smoothing method was used. Best model is simple seasonal for the logarithm of the levels, andWinters additive for the square root level of the original series. The research of time series confirms that the ARIMA (0,1, 2) x (1, 0, 1) s model can be used to the analysis and prediction of uniform non-stationary time series with a nonlineartrend, such as a polynomial of low degree. Prediction for 2012 is computed using simple Simple seasonal, Winters andARIMA models.

Author Biography

R.Z. Burtiev, Institute of Geology and Seismology, 3 Academiei Str, Chisinau, Moldova

Moldavian Academy of Sciences

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Published

2015-10-01

How to Cite

1.
R.Z. Burtiev. Time Series in the Study of Seismic Regime of Vrancea (Romania) Seismic Zone. Glob. Environ. Eng. [Internet]. 2015Oct.1 [cited 2021Sep.26];1(2):54-63. Available from: https://www.avantipublishers.com/jms/index.php/tgevnie/article/view/219

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